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TechBit: another prediction

The republicans are virtually monolithic on their newly found opposition to government spending. So here is the prediction, no matter what happens with the economy between now and 4 years from now, they will say "I told you so!"

They may say this, rightly, if the economy goes even further into the shitter (i'm patient for 2 years, before we need to start looking at course corrections which may in fact be dramatic cuts to spending). However, even if the economy improves, and no matter how fast or how much it improves, they will then produce the logistical somersault required to say "If you had listened to us, the economy would have improved more and faster".

Perhaps an obvious prediction.

5 comments:

On 2/19/09, 7:47 PM , Jason said...

Eh, the economy tends to go into waves and corrects itself over time. Its quite amazing that we have had probably a good 5-10 shorter depressions over the last 100 years (including 1 big one) and each gulf has been overcome with 5-10 different solutions. As for the Great Depression, the Republicans and Democrats did a lot to make the economy worse in the late 1920s and early 1930s which prolonged it (bad monetary policy, extreme protectionism, etc).

Personally, the Republicans have to be the opposition. And honestly, while they may not be able to claim that they would've improved it faster, the Republicans will probably be able to claim that they would've accumulated less debt.

Plus, many economists are already predicting a recovery for the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2009. Its the cyclical nature of the economy, it rises too quick and then the market corrects itself. And while the government has implemented many bad ideas in the past to exacerbate the situation (federal forced-loan policies, the too big to fail idea, gigantic deficit spending under Bush), I don't believe that we are in a case where over time the market will fail without us. Its nice to see the extra science spending, but I feel that we'll suffer for it in the future.

 
On 2/19/09, 8:03 PM , Techskeptic said...

Perhaps I am being smeantic, but it really isnt cycles is it? Its more valleys and hills. If it were truly cyclical, it would be a whole lot more predictable.

Yup, the reps have to be the opposition, but I wish it weren't a party thing. I wish people would just stand up for what is right. I spent the whole day reading the energy related parts of the 407 page stimulus bill (for work). I do not believe anyone that voted on it actually read it.

the Republicans will probably be able to claim that they would've accumulated less debt

Well it will be hard to take them seriously since they increased the debt all by themselves 60% when they had total control of the house, senate and presidency.

many economists are already predicting a recovery for the 3rd or 4th quarter of 2009

Good to hear. Those predictions, if they make news, give people a positive outlook, which is what I think drives the market. Makes them feel safe to invest again. However, economists are like meterologists. If it rains the ones who said rain say Yay! if it is sunny, the ones who said sunny say Yay!. Many economists were all over the place with respect to the recession, the housing market, and so forth one year ago.

I know the stock market will come back. I also thnk it will start some time later this year. I hope so, I get a pit in my stomach whenever I look at my accounts.

 
On 2/19/09, 10:39 PM , Muzioler said...

You're right about the "cycle" part. The common term is the market cycle or the business cycle; however it is only referring to the states and not the timing. Just read that people prefer to call it "fluctuations" now instead of cycles. Damn semanticists... ruining everyone's fun.

I agree that the Republicans have no solid footing for the most part. There have been some who have been against spending increases the entire time, such as Jeff Flake and the moderately insane Ron Paul; however they were the exceptions rather than the rules. Still, the Republicans will now stake their claim as the party against spending despite a good 4 years proving otherwise.

As for economists being like meteorologists, that is true in many senses. Still, many economists were on the ball about the housing market and bad loans. I remember Alan Greenspan repeatedly warning about the housing market bubble from the early 2000s. Economists may disagree about how to fix the economy, but they tend to moderately uniform on how to screw it up or what is messing it up. Still, Yay! Its sunny!

I know I don't like to mix work and pleasure, but I wouldn't mind seeing your opinion on the energy portions of the stimulus package. I've heard about it from an economic side; however I've been led to believe its a pretty good deal for science. Is that the case?

 
On 2/19/09, 10:43 PM , Jason said...

How odd... I was trying to get it to link to my gmail account but it wouldn't take. Anyways, that last post was by me.

 
On 2/20/09, 6:07 AM , Techskeptic said...

I know I don't like to mix work and pleasure, but I wouldn't mind seeing your opinion on the energy portions of the stimulus package<

I'm working on it. Its a bit weird becuase the package does not stipulate how a lot of it is spent. It just says "Here, 75,000,000 is for you". In some places its specific, but mostly not.